60 hands/table/hour X 4 tables = 240 hands/hour
240 hands/hour X 5 hours = 1200 hands/day
1200 hands/day X 7 days = 8400 hands/week
8400 hands/week X 4 weeks = 33 600 hands/month
If I run at 4bb/100 @ 1c/2c:
$0.04 X 4 X 336 = $53.76 per month
So that's the plan. Will be hard though, considering I have never played 4 tables before and the 4bb/100 winrate is really just an arbitrary figure I pulled out based on stuff I've read. Hell, I've read its possible to pull out as much as 10bb/100 at these stakes although I'm pretty damn sure I won't get close to that. I would be very happy with 4, ecstatic with 5.
On another note, I researched a bit on the deposit bonus I think I would be eligible for on FTP - the 100% up to $600. Planning on depositing $60 so that would be awesome to get to easily double the bankroll. But I'm not so sure about how to calculate the bonus points though. From the bonuswhores.com site:
For each dollar raked from the pot, you will earn one point. You can earn partial points if less than one dollar is raked, and you can earn up to three points per hand. Basically, the amount that is raked is equal to the amount of points you will get per hand (a hand raked at $0.50 would give you 0.50 points). Each point is worth $0.06, so you can earn up to $18 per hundred hands.
So I checked the rake structure at 1c/2c 6-max which is 1c/15c pot. If I'm understanding this right, I would need 1000 points to get the full $60 bonus since 1 point = $0.06. So assuming the average pot I play is only 15c
1000 points / 0.01 bonus points per hand = 100 000 hands
100 000 hands / 33 600 hands per month = 2.98 months
Which... is a while. Hopefully the average pot of 15c I'm assuming here is a bit low. Here's the catch though - the bonus is only valid for 120 days ie. 4 months. Basically, I have to maintain that target volume for 3 months in to get the full bonus (luckily they release it in increments of 10% ie. $6 ie. 10 000 hands) which may be hard what with the whole beijing thing coming up. So the extra month helps but I'm not too sure if I can make up my expected decreased volume during beijing in that extra month.
Also, I emailed my rakeback affiliate to get them to move me back to them seeing as how last time they told me that FTP moved me off their list because I failed to have more than $25 in my account anytime soon after I signed up. In an earlier email I sent them when I started playing cash again they said they could easily move me back once I had $25 in my account to which I replied ok I will let you know if I do. Now I'm planning to deposit $60 so hopefully they were true to their word that they can easily move me back. Hopefully. I think rakeback may be a dealbreaker for me playing at FTP despite it being my preferred site (I hesitate to say favourite since I've really only dabbled with Stars and very very very very briefly Absolute Poker pre-scandal).
So that's the plan. I'm not gonna mention moving up to 2c/5c eventhough I sort of have done the sums and stuff because I think it's absurd to even consider it seeing as I haven't even played a hand yet in my comeback to poker. The credit card confirmation came through today and I'm hoping to recieve it in the mail tomorrow, activate it and deposit before the end of the week so I can start. I am actually quite anxious about it seeing as all the preparation I've put in and I think the possibility of me busting is probably significantly more than the possibility of me being a winner right now. But that talk is for the next post.
See how it goes man...
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